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the marriott hotel. steve liesman is there. we'll be hearing from him in a moment. we're also foe lowing what the feds call the most lucrative inside trading scheme ever. we go will to the formal announcement by the charges of the u.s. attorney. we will take you there live as well. but first, we meet the traders for the hour. steven weiss, joe and john naje najerayan, so a lot of digest. steve, you have this market rally, trying to go for a third straight day. going to be listening closely to the fed chairman in new york. >> i don't think bernanke is going to affect the rally one way or the other. what's driving the market is optimism over avoiding fiscal cliff and a deal, so the caution i would offer is that negotiations are going to make their way to the headlines and just be prepared for volatility. i think now, this allows us to move higher because the big decline we have, but at some point, you've got the say okay, we're going to get some big sells in front of the new tax laws. we've seen big dividend payments. you also have to watch dividend stocks, but it's not going to be smooth saili
open their wallets this weekend? steve liesman says absolutely. stick around for our retail therapy panel coming up. >>> later on, with the fiscal cliff and debt looming larger, you'd think our nation's lawmakers would be working this thanksgiving. go figure. i'll talk to one of the fix the debt ceos about the biggest crisis facing our country. back in a moment. g kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i'm in total control because i can trade tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i use their global research to get an edge. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rates specific foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i also ha
over the fiscal cliff affect your money? that's what we're talking about next. steve liesman does some cliff diving and breaks down the numbers on what it means to you and mean. >>> then, two professional negotiators have been listening to what the president is saying that he wants and what speaker john boehner said he wants to avoid. do they think we'll have a deal or no deal? you're going to want to hear what both of them have to say. they're coming up next. you're watching the "closing bell." stick around. >>> welcome back. well, the countdown is on. lawmakers in washington have just 47 days to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff or risk massive tax increases and massive spending cuts. senior economist reporter steve liesman is breaking down how going off the cliff will impact you. >> if it's not clear to people how the fiscal cliff will affect their wallets, i think this report will make it clear how it's going to mean real money out of your wallets. according to the tax policy center, this is the fiscal cliff and your taxes. if you're in the lowest, second, fourth, or middle quin til
have our all stars right here, larry kudlow, steve liesman and rick santelli. brian sullivan with us from democracy plaza in new york city. >> on the virginia thing, absolutely, the northern suburbs a new ball game. you grew up in virginia. >> i did. >> i lived there when i worked in the administration. two other key points, the tidewater region where the military spending and the across the board budget sequester is a huge issue and in the southwest part of virginia, the coal industry is another huge issue. >> interesting to see we are seeing the projected winners in indiana and kentucky being amid romney here. does this tell you anything about what's to come? >> i think it does. i think there's momentum here that's difficult to poll and some of these states will give us early indications. >> steve liesman, now as we go along, continuing to see these poll closings, in fact we've got a total of six poll closings at 7:00, but at 7:30 we will find out ohio, which, of course, has been so contested. >> my best guess is we're not going to find out ohio. >> at 7:30. when the polls close. >
at what it could mean for wall street. we have rick santelli and steve liesman joining us. steve, it comes after a day of pretty decent economic data we got. >> yeah, it's certainly a better way to go into what the uncertain effects of hurricane sandy are going to be. to have the economy stabilized on a slight upswing from what weren't great numbers. the consumer hanging in there with the biggest problem being business spending. i think ultimately what we're going to see tomorrow are numbers that are in line, 125 to 150. i don't get too hung up in 10,000 here, 10,000 there. show me 250 and i'll be really excited. show me that 70 or 50,000, and i'll start getting concerned. >> rick, is that priced into the market? what kind of reaction will we get? >> i think it is priced in. i'm not sure we get a big market move on that. i congratulate the bureau of labor statistics. i'm sure there was pressure potentially to delay the number. many are glad they didn't. i think over the last couple days steve and i have raised issues that this is going to be an important number for a number of reasons, not
bell exchange," todd is with us, so is bill, and steve liesman and pisani with us as well. it's expected this market is going to stand and wait to see what the election results are going to be like for tomorrow, right? >> hey, it's human nature. i mean, people have been paralyzed with all these horror stories about fiscal cliffs and the end of the dollar and the end of america. so, when in doubt, do nothing. hide your cash, sit on the sidelines. but i think there's going to be a big plunger effect that could really unleash tidal waves of money as people start to see maybe there's some wonderful surprises, some electoral surprises that just aren't popular right now. >> what are you suggesting? >> i don't know. this nose does more than hold this mustache and glasses and i think it might be a electoral surprise for mr. romney. if that's the case -- >> you think romney wins -- >> i do. >> -- that will be a surprise and this market rallies on that win? >> i think the market rallies big. there will be a lot of money in motion. people will be moving on with decision-making. there's t
senior economics reporter, steve liesman, and our own rick santelli. john, it is clear that the fiscal cliff has wall street's full attention right now. do you expect a -- something to happen by december 31 or not? >> we expect something is going to happen. what that's going to be, we don't have the clarity we're expecting just yet. i think it's simple math. everybody knows what has to be done. obviously, we've had many, many studies over the course of the last few years that tell us what has to be done. so it is math. it's just about them getting in a room and hammering out the details. so we obviously need some revenue and some cuts across the board. i think it's how those are going play out in terms of what portion and how much is going to be what the market's really keying on. i think $4 trillion is basically the number that's kind of out there. i think if it comes in higher than that, it's going to be positive. if it doesn't, it's going to be a negative. >> so steve liesman, what do you think this tells us about compromise? over the last couple of days, we were all fuzzy. we were
reporter steve liesman, plus mary thompson. we're going to be here for a while. john, let's start with you. any signs of progress on the hill? >> reporter: nothing tangible. we saw it at the initial meeting between the president and congressional leaders. we saw it over the weekend when some republicans again repeated their openness to being willing to raise taxes, which is something that is violated republican orthodoxy. here is jay carney just a few minutes ago in reaction to those comments. >> some of the comments you mentioned are welcome. and they represent what we hope is a difference in tone and approach to these problems and a recognition that a balanced approach to deficit reduction is the right approach. it's the one most beneficial for our economy. >> reporter: the president's trying to take advantage of that different tone. he talked to speaker boehner over the weekend by telephone. and today you've had two business leaders, john engler, tom donahue, in to meet with senior white house officials. they're trying to keep this going. aides on capitol hill tell me no substantive pro
bernanke before the economic club. steve liesman will join must a moment. let's bring in tyler mathisen and bob pisani. the fed chairman went into fed policy, the looming fiscal cliff and the recovery, said the economic recovery was continuing and largely positive about the direction of housing. i want to focus with you though on the fiscal cliff, because he centered on that and he did say that it poses substantial risks to the economy. in fact, it's already hurting. this was a fed chairman saying don't look to me to fix the fiscal cliff, rise above and solve it. >> could have been wearing one of our buttons in part of our speech today. he really basically said get your act together t is up to congress and the white house and the administration to hit the right balance between budgetary restraint in the long run and a do no harm policy to the economy in the short run. and he was absolutely crystal clear in his answers to one of the last questions there, scott, that if congress and the white house can't come together and we do a full thelma & louise off the cliff you can the fed doesn't
. >> i should let you know we have steve liesman here. he was inside the room yesterday as chairman bernanke was making his comments in new york. which really seemed to say, don't look to us to fix it, that being the fed. >> yeah, i don't think the fed could fix it. they've done just about everything they can do. they lowered interest rates, flooded the system with money. so, monetary policy has done its job. what you've got to do right now is you've got an economy that probably next year will grow at best to 4% nominally. you've got the fiscal cliff could be another 4% off that, taking it right down to zero. i don't think they'll do the whole thing. i'm interested in steve's view of this. i think they'll do about 1.5%. but that brings you from four to 2.5. you're down to a half a percent growth. that's not very much and i think earnings are going to struggle in that environment. >> i think you have the math right, byron. as usual. let's just do it another way. the fed is purchases $85 billion of long-term securities every month, what we're talking about here is off setting. there a
andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman. joe is out sick. we hope he's feeling better. futures are rebounding a bit. stocks finished near session lows yesterday, down 185 points at the end of the day. all the major s&p sectors closed in negative territory. nasdaq and russell 2,000 are now down more than 10% since the highs they reached back this mid september. the green arrows will be welcome to the bulls today. also, the ceo of mellon will be joining us to talk about the markets. as we've been talking about, the biggest issue for the markets right now seems to be the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff. yesterday business leaders urged president obama and lawmakers to prevent a year end across board tax rise that will go into act unless congress acts. >> he understands it requires a combination of tax increases and title refor and discretionary spending cuts that dnl democrats and republicans have to work together. i'm is sure there will be a lot of forth and back between republicans and democrats, the congress and the president as they start to work their way to a deal.
speculation at this point. >> steve liesman will come on and do a report and talk about it. if you could have one person, if you could choose, who would it be? >> i think that's the president's choice. >> oh, come on. >> i'm not going to do that. my partner, roger altman, is a superb candidate. pains me to say that. i told him yesterday i'll say nice things about him even though it's not in my interest or our shareholders' interests. he has a highly unusual combination of government experience and business experience, successful in both places. my former partner larry fink is a superb candidate. i don't think there's a person in the u.s. today who has a broad knowledge of the markets and the players in the foebl financial markets as does larry. jack liu is also a good candidate because of fiscal issues and the budget will be central to this next four years. >> the other topic we haven't talked about is banking and what happened to the world of banking and what's going to happen to the world under obama. there are a number of rules and regulations as part of dodd-frank that haven't been put in
in front of the economic club of new york. steve liesman will be previewing that speech and what the markets want to take away from it. >>> in just a bit the ceo of charley's grilled subs, what it means to be made in america and what all that holds for, onions? we're holding the onions. i don't want to hold the onions. i like onions. "squawk box" returns with the onions when we return. ally bank. why they have a raise your rate cd. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally. >>> we'll get back to the futures after a big up day yesterday, as you can see down less than 20 points as far as the dow jones industrial average goes. and we do now have someone who has agreed, david, to rise above even earlier than 9:00, rising above with us today at 7:30, david faber, i don't know, did you not change to daylight savings time? are you confused?
take a closer look at today's move. steve liesman and rick santelli. gentlemen, thank you for joining us. how is the american consumer? . >>> we would have stampeded out to like walmart or something. >> see what the bargains are. that's the question, right? the consumer is certainly in better shape than he or she was one year ago. home prices are back up, sent machine is back up. the process of separating consumers from their money is intricate. my point would be that the consumer is in decent shape to buy if the deal is right. are you selling into this? had el's not hearty us. >>> binds you are up ten basis points, so your safe harbors are selling off a bit. there is perceived good news. on the fiscal cliff, i can't make a comment. i don't think we have enough info. trying to tack the reform or race taxes, but if you look at the cac, for example, they've had a huge week. france was downgraded and did lose their aaa, at least from the moody's vantage point. never before has the rally made 16 1/2% look so cheap, but that last one is an interesting story. you know, one of the things we
of course could grow. steve liesman has been crunching the newspaperup i numbers and hn the next hour. this is to try to build up some sort of protection, some massive floodwalls. governor cuomo was saying this would be like $9.1 billion to start building. >> questions about the future of the sec following mary shapiro's exit. elyse walter could run the agent until december 2013 when she would have to be renominated and reapproved by the senate. among the issues, and ongoing battle over regulating the $2.5 trillion money market fund industry, some 63 unfinished rule making requirements that are all part of dodd-frank and continuing fears of course about market stability and high frequency trading. p. >> money markets used to be covered by the fdic when the crisis first came on. >> and also worth pointing out, there was one failure of mary sha piro's time in office, shall was this was it. she wanted to regulate that business. you remember that vote. if there was any regulation, the money market industry claimed they would go out of business because there would be too much collateral se
groupon. steve liesman. >> an interagency release from banking regulators saying the new basel 3 capital rules will not take effect january 2013 as originally scheduled. saying they're delaying these new capital rules because of industry concerns that have been expressed in the period that began over the summer. they expressed concerns over the complexities of the rules and timetable for implementing them. january '13 is the suggest the timeline from basel. the federal reserve and the fdic saying that they fully intend to implement these rules. so, it's not necessarily a reprieve, just a period of time when they don't have to have them implemented. these capital rules, i believe, are still on the way to being implemented. >> jamie dimon, who's on this afternoon at 4:00, this is not enough to get him to do any cartwheels? >> no. i'm not sure what it would take to get jamie dimon to do cartwheels, but this is definitely not it. >> morgan stanley out with a fresh note saying deal fatigue is evident. active customers year over year, 45% growth, purchase deals year over year, 9% growth. you g
right now? let's talk about that in our clo"closing bell" exchange. steve liesman will have breaking news momentarily. steve, do you have that? >> yes, i do. what we have is a report from the new york fed on consumer finance. what the news shows is that overall, consumer credit outside of real estate is up just a bit. most of that, by the way, is student loan debt, being up about $42 billion inside that $2.7 trillion number. overall, mortgage debt is down and overall debt is down. the basic gist of the details, bill, is that consumer credit continues to decline overall. delinquencies are down and bankruptcies are down. balance sheet repair continues. a little bit more willingness of the consumer to take on some debt and a lot of it -- >> that's very interesting, steve. let me ask you something, david. >> i want to make one more point, which is that when you talk about how much the dow is down today, it should be down more because the rally we didn't have from the better economic news this morning. >> yeah, no, that was a good point. david, so we've got consumer confidence data, which
cantor on why mitt romney is the right man to lead the country. steve liesman on jobs and the election. and billionaire real estate mogul donald trump. it's election morning and the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> it is finally here, election day 2012, i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. this morning a look at the markets, your money and how the presidential election is going to be deciding the next four years. house majority leader eric cantor is our special guest and one of the earlier investors in apple, alan patricof, discussing what's next for venture capital and beyond and it's tuesday, which can only mean one thing, the donald, his forecast on the election outcome and an update on his business ventures, and tonight we've got a special edition of "squawk box," our "your money your vote squawk box edition" begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern, we have a great line-up with your money in mind, mar marty feldstein, kristen rohr and you get us later today and tomorrow at 5:00 a.m. in the morning. >> we're also watching markets and at this hour the fut
along with joe kernen and steve liesman sitting in for andrew ross sorkin. we'll start with the fiscal cliff as optimism dwindles. lawmakers admit they have made no real progress. republicans are rejecting president obama's proposal which includes a $1.6 trillion tax increase, a $50 billion economic stimulus package and new power to increase the debt ceiling without congressional approval. the offer featured higher tax rates for households making over $250,000 a year. a one year postponement of the sequester and about $400 billion in savings over ten years for medicare and other entitlement programs. >> despite the claims that the president supports a -- >> thousand is the time fnow is republicans to move past the happy talk about revenues, ill defined, of course, and put specifics on the table. the president has made his proposal. we need a proposal from them. >> today president obama is taking his pitch on the road. he will be visiting the philadelphia suburbs employing campaign style tactics in hopes of mobilizing the public to his side. he'll be speaking at a manufacturing facility
. >> the reasoning right now, steve liesman s if you're going to get a jobs number and want revisions behind it for the previous month, maybe there's less of a need for quantitative easing on the margins down the road. you get a stronger dollar. that seems to be the reasreason. >> maybe, but i'm more struck by how the video has turned from sandy, bill. i think today's numbers along with a bunch of other data we've had the last couple days has suggested the economy has more momentum going into november than we thought before. however, when we see the pictures of sandy go from essentially heartbreaking disaster to now sort of more nerve-racking social unrest, when we hear some of the stories out there, i don't think those are the kind of pictures that cause people to take long positions in stocks. i think it's a wait-and-see position. wait and see how much sandy has an effect on the economy before you can take a positive position represented by the numbers here. >> all right. so there's a lot of noise in all of this. you've got sandy. you've got the election uncertainty. you've got uncertainty
that negotiation? >> all right. stay with us. we want to bring in steve liesman and rick santelli to talk more about the outcome and what the outcome of the congressional races tonight will impact the fiscal cliff. rick, let's start with you on the fiscal cliff. obviously, if mitt romney wins, he said the next day he is going to focus on the fiscal cliff. how does that play out? how do you envision this happening? >> i think it's going to be very difficult, but the complexion of congress, as eamon pointed out, is key. if the republicans run the table and do cross over in the senate, they hold on to the house. the fiscal cliff issue gets watered down quickly. same if the democrats run the table. i think we know what the outcome there would be. i think if you see the senate stay as it is f the house stays as it is, it almost doesn't matter. i think there's going to be an issue. boehner's commented sounded like a mirror image of senator schumer's comments a couple weeks ago. they've both put down markers. i think that's why the underlying tone of this election is leadership. i think both sides do
. >> there's so much at stake for the economy this election. jobs number one issue here. steve liesman, do you believe that this has been what's dictating these wins or losses across the country? >> it's what's dictating a close race. i think what's out there is the economy is clearly the number one issue. has been the number one issue. my good friend, larry, disagrees with me on this score. i don't think either side closed the deal on how to create jobs. when i look at the polls, i see them looking close. when i look at polling on the economy, i see romney ahead. i see "the wall street journal" poll that most people think the economy is moving in the right direction. we had polling data we reported from cnbc. the unemployed split 48-48. if there was ever a natural constituency for mitt romney, it would be the unemployed. they split 48-48. >> a lot of unemployed disproportionate unemployment rate among african-americans and hispanics -- >> i checked for that in our data. i looked at only white unemployed. they actually skew more toward obama than they do toward romney. when i get rid of th
. let's bring in jared bernstein, sarah fagen, cathi yeah wylde, steve liesman, larry kudlow, and keith boykin. let's go over to you guys. jared, your thoughts? let's talk about when the work begins now now that we know barack obama is re-elected. >> look, i'm feeling pretty elated over here. i think i might be levitating a little bit. try to keep the camera on me. >> as long as your leg doesn't tingle, we're okay. >> i thought you guys had an interesting discussion and there's definitely divisiveness out there. i'm going to pretend it's a kumbaya country all of a sudden. but with this re-election, i really do think the two sides could come together and find ways to work this out. it does involve some new revenues in the deal. you heard me argon wiuing with r norquist. yesterday's gridlock has to be left with yesterday. i think with this victory the democrats maintaining the senate, i know it's a status quo, but often newly re-elected presidents or newly elected or reelected presidents, they get a break on these kind of deals so i'm looking for republicans to come to the table. >> the o
on the fed. over to steve liesman. >> maria, thanks. fed vice chair janet yellen saying that the federal reserve shows optimal policy could dictate lower rates through 2016. also saying the fed could eliminate calendar date guidance entirely and replace it with economic targets. that's been discussed among others. charlie evans says she's strongly supportive of using these economic targets and they would promote automatic stabilizers, allowing the market to adjust automatically to incoming data. it would also help the public understand fed policy. also says the fed is considering forecasting optimal policy pass by individual members. so by the way, janet yellen chairs the subcommittee on communications. these are important words from an important person. on the fed and inflation, she's remiebdsing us a 2% inflation target is the central tendency, not the ceiling. if the 2% is a ceiling, what would happen is all the deviations would be below 2%. she's reiterating what the fed has said. it's symmetrical. so maria, at the end of the day, these are important comments from janet yellen, who's
. there are befoargains being created. >> but you're not ready to buy yet? >> not yet. >> i want to get to you, steve liesman. >> i thought you were going to ask me the rest of the 12 steps. >> you know, the republicans, we're hoping for a compromise, but the republicans have been digging in their heels because they've been saying higher tax rates would be job killers. who what extent would they be job killers? >> well, i'd say there's a huge debate over that. i know there are people who believe religiously that any tax increases will reduce job growth. i think that in the first order, whatever your religious feelings on that, uncertainty is almost certainly a job killer before somewhat higher taxes are. i think huge tax increases obviously would reduce job growth. if you think about what's happened to our tax code, a lot of it has become on a year to year basis. i have no idea how businesses can plan. with the fiscal cliff, without a solution, it takes nearly the entire tax code and puts it on a year to year basis. i would be very weary right now of listening to these hopeful terms that come out. th
but how will it affect the states and people who live in them? steve liesman has more bad news on the fiscal cliff. >> this thing is designed to cause pain throughout the country. our mapping of this using diver and lumius, their technology, they were able to heat map federal spending. it does cause pain throughout the country. this is a map, a county by county map of the united states that breaks down by color federal spending per capita. what you see is the red goes from $20,000 to $175,000, yes, all the way down to just $1,000. along the eastern seaboard that's a lot of fema. fema will take an 8% hit. in florida, a lot of social security spending. up here you have the risk management association -- sorry, agency, from department of agriculture. crop subsidy and drought relief comes through here. education, public assistance. the whole spectrum, pretty much, are subject to 8% cuts. let's take a look by state when we look at the total count here. this is from the pew research center. we find maryland, virginia, d.c., 20%. that's evenly split between the green, nondefense, and
for stocks or for jobs. cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman is going to dig down on how jobs in the crucial swing states may impact today's vote. >>> plus, matt chess love right over there, waiting in the wings, going to join me with a look what the the markets may do tomorrow based on what's happening tonight, with the dow jones industrial average up 150 points you can the s & p up almost a full percent. the nasdaq up a half a percent. back in a minute. up. a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying and tomorrow we will up it yet again. to compete on the global stage. what we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. by 2025 we could have 20 million jobs without enough college graduates to fill them. that's why at devry university, we're teaming up with companies like cisco to help
that looming fiscal cliff, you might be surprised. steve liesman has been analyzing it. it doesn't seem to show an economy that is all that worried about what's like ahead for us. >> not on the consumer side. before we have seen the consumer doing well, oblivious to the cliff but measures of business sentiment declining because of the cliff. today, consumer measures continue to look pretty decent and business measures came in not too bad, pretty decent. look. durable goods up changed, we expected them to be negative and business investment up 1.7%. consumer confidence up, not too bad a number. chain store sales for the week ending saturday, including black friday. the best saturday or week ending saturday after thanksgiving that i could find back to 1990. case-shiller home prices continue their march upward. look at consumer confidence and the cliff. i want to show you the two-year chart heerz that dip you see in the middle of your screen there, that is the last debacle, the debt ceiling debacle. can't see it here yet. so you don't get excite about the numbers, give you a longer view whether it
the gains of 50 points and we're now negative by 26. s&p 500 is basically flat. we brought in steve liesman. he knows the jobs report better than anybody. trying to figure out some sense to make from it. why isn't the market reacting better and what -- >> i don't know, but i'm thinking these pictures of sandy that are on tv are not conducive to people wanting to buy stocks. these are like in some cases katrina-like pictures in terms of the devastation. >> even with a jobs report that the critics are -- >> it's hard for them to cite size it. some of them are making up numbers. most of the economists i talk to are calling this a stronger than expected jobs report and it goes with other strong data this week suggesting here is what you got to know. it's a economy that was on a modest upswing just before this catastrophic hurricane hit the northeast. 171k compared to a forecast of 125,000. so an upside surprise. the unemployment rate ticked up as expected. these were the two disappointments, the average hourly earnings and average weakly earnings numbers which by the way -- you could use those
would really happen if we did go off the fiscal cliff? senior economics reporter steve liesman is following that side of the story. when's the potential economic fallout? >> see it in the markets, scott. you have remarked about this. why? stocks discount earnings. earnings the result of economics. they disagree of falling off the cliff but mean it's recession if we fell off it. so let's talk about some of the economic numbers and some of the jobs numbers here. just come over here and talk about the dollar value. $40 billion out of the economy from nondefense cuts. $24 billion in 2013. $108 billion, get rid of the payroll taxes and unemployment insurance. $42 billion for the wealthy and about $300 billion getting rid of it for the lower and middle class. come over here. here's the gdp totals here and what you want to do is take the pencil out and total them. 0.4% from nondefense, defense. 0.7% from the payroll taxes to 1.3. when's the total now? it's 2.9 percentage points less. this means a recession next year. no doubt about it. there was an exercise. lou alexander. was in the
are a few seconds away from the adp employment report. steve liesman and mark zandi join us now. the first one was delayed by a day because of the storm so it's thursday. >> actually not because of the storm, it was delayed because they were supposed to ring the bell down there and speak special one time on thursday, and the number is the new adp report 158,000 for the month of october, this is the first time they've released this under the new methodology and september the number a lot of people became aware of yesterday which was originally printed at 88,000 under the new methodology revised to 114,000. let's look at the breakdown by sectors, goods producing up 14,000, what is interesting you'll see in a second it's not manufacturing. it is construction. services up 144,000, the non-farm payroll estimate, that includes government and private is 125,000. so looks like a little room for some upward adjustment in the market's expectations of the private sector but not a whole lot. my guess given what i've read about the skepticism regarding this, i think it's well placed skepticism, everyth
president. number 46, that is today, potentially could be the biggest of them all. cnbc's steve liesman is here and has a preview of the numbers and steve, what are we looking for? >> the most important jobs report in history perhaps. >> you think? >> i think that's what some people are calling it. we'll look at the obama jobs record in a second. let's focus on the october report. 125 is the number expected, 7.9%, a tick up in the unemployment rate, not giving back the gains. >> the 7.9 that would be the round trip, that would be january 20th. >> the number whenby ma took office. >> i thought it was 7.9. it went below? >> 7.9. >> so 7.9. >> it went up and down. i have the obama jobs record for democrats, republicans and economists, and you'll have a lot to say. >> no, i won't have anything to say. i'm saying it would be weird the symmetry of 46 months above and to end on where the day you took office. >> the consensus for this morning is taking a lot of cross currents in the data, with the business side of the data suggesting a weak employment report but consumers acting and talking lik
? in this animation, steve liesman explains the truth about taxes. >> between income taxes and payroll taxes, uncle sam rakes in over $2 trillion a year. 36 about respect come from payroll taxes paid by most workers. 45% comes from individual income taxes and 12% comes from corporations. so how much of every dollar you earn does uncle sam take? well, if you make less than $10,000 a year, he takes about 1% of your total income. if you make around $45,000, uncle sam takes about 12%. and if you're fortunate must have to be in the top 1%, making an average of $1.5 million a year, you're tossing about 20% to uncle sam. but is each group paying it fair share? the richest of the rich, the top 0.1% of earners, are responsible for filling about 13% of uncle sam's tax pocket. and when you expand to just the top 1% of earner, they fill to about 26%. and when you include the top 20%, whose average income is about $250,000, their responsible for filling about 70% of the pocket. but then consider america's income distribution. that same top 20% of taxpayers takes in about 55% of the nation's income. but year aft
for october. before we get the numbers, steve liesman he's here again with more on what to expect from the data. if you have any questions about bon for tuna. you don't want to know. but someone said that to him and he died. >> well, what's interesting about this number, joe, it's maybe some of the first data we're going to get that should be affected by sandy. how is unclear. what we knew what happened with sandy, there was a surge in retail sales ahead of the storm. >> grocery stores, home depot. >> et cetera. then what we expect a falloff after and how much of that was captured was unclear. we do know that autos fell off. the automakers said that the drop from 14.9 million units to 14.2 million units was the result of losing a weekend from sandy. >> they may make it up by the cars that got swamped in the aftermath. >> that's a great point. but what we think happened is that there was a surge before and a dropoff after, and we'll be waiting to see. we know autos went down. >> we are going now to the one and only rick with the numbers, please. >> and here we go. down .2 on headline pp
can't reach an agreement and what happens if they do reach an agreement? steve liesman will bring us a special report after this. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade at charles schwab for $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 6 months commission-free online equity trading tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with a $50,000 deposit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-836-8799. sfx- "sounds of african drum and flute" look who's back. again? it's embarrassing it's embarrassing! we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that pro
? steve liesman has the answer, right after this. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" everyone. among our top story this is morning, the looming fiscal cliff. president obama stepping up his lobbying effort this weekend making calls to leaders like jamie dimon, warren buffett, apple's tim book and costco's craig gelnic. we know how the fiscal cliff would impact u.s. gdp. lot of people ask will it send us back into recession? steve liesman joins us with a few answers. >> thanks. we've been talking about the overall macro economic impact of the fiscal cliff, how it would affect the overall economy. what we haven't done is drilled down into a state by state or county by county level and say how will it affect i? let's remind you of the overall numbers. here is this graphic here that says it's a $503 billion hit in 2013 compared to 2012, non-defense $40 billion, payroll $108 billion. the bush tax cuts for the lower and middle class $288 billion hit. that's the cliff, but what happens when you divide it up and look at it on a state by state level? what you'll see is individual states are hit diffe
into recession? steve liesman has the answers next. first, rick santelli, what are you working on in the next big hour of "squawk on the street"? >> well, they say, melissa lee, that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. i don't think it's a big reach to consider that the u.s. seems to be striving to be more european in many ways. a topic for santelli exchange today is going to be bending it like europe. fizzle and sizzle cycles. what have we learned? what should we expect? top of the hour. ♪ [ male announcer ] 'tis the season to discover the kid in all of us. enjoy free shipping and great values on your holiday shopping from l.l. bean. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. >> want to draw your attention to the euro. reuters is quoting some o
. and that's -- and i hope we have applause ready. steve liesman is onset right now. steve liesman is onset. >> thank you. thank you. and -- >> why did -- >> i don't know why it says that. >> that's all it says. >> am i responsible for what's in the prompter? don't turn to me. >> that's all you need to tell viewers. >> that's all you need to tell viewers, it's click, turn and they go to the "today" show or wherever they go. and i have a variety of things for you. >> you do. >> maybe i didn't tell them what i was going to have. >> there we go. that's very nice. >> first of all, it's interesting, we're going to watch consumer sentiments to see if this fiscal cliff stuff is finally going to be felt by the consumer. i'll talk about the consumer in a second. >> you don't think it is? >> i don't know. it's strange we've had this surge in consumer sentiment while all we do and everybody else does is talk about the cliff. first i want to look at sandy and katrina. because we were lucky, i made this chart before we went on. and turns out the estimate was exactly right. if you have that graphic, i do
'm andrew ross sorkin. becky quick is here and steve liesman is here. >> bea to go up in flames, andrew, literally and/sore figuratively. >> it happens pretty much every morning when joe is here. take a look at futures this morning as we get started ahead of this, dow would open up about 18 points higher, s&p two points higher and the nasdaq higher as well. it is the official start to the holiday shopping season and the national retail federation expects a 4.1% increase in retail sales this year. the flames make reading the headlines a little strange. >> somebody have a fire extinguisher. >> the nrf saying that 147 million people will shot today through sunday, it's hard to get through the headlines and not laugh. that number down from 152 million on black friday. the new york stock exchange, nasdaq and cme, they close at 1:00 eastern so we have a half day. metals are finishing at 12:30 eastern and nymex closes an hour later and as i said earlier we're happy to have her in studio sharing her thoughts on retail and a lot more, dana telsey, her thoughts on retail coming up in a moment. >>
is steve liesman. >> good interview on blackberry. a week to pay attention to the data. it will be affected by hurricane sandy making it difficult to figure out underlying momentum. gdp is not one of the data points. we put an asterisk next to data potentially affected by sandy. some worry that markets won't see through sandy effects and could walk away with a bearish look. there's durable goods potential effect there down 1.3% after a surge the prior month. consumer confidence, probably not. new home sales certainly in the northeast have potential. moving on to thursday. jobless claims. definite potential there and pending home sales. not gdp. this game at the end of the quarter or after the quarter had ended. now let's look at jobless claims data here. do we have that? i think we do. there we go. there's hurricane sandy. hurricane katrina. you can see it's following a very, very similar pattern there and the expectation is that it will come down again on thursday to 390,000. one more thing i want to look at is gdp during katrina. a slowdown during katrina you can see right there, that's t
come to mind, rick. we've got steve liesman here with more of the data. number one i think, wow, if we really do rise above and get this solved, we're set up to do pretty well, i think, if that's the starting point. the other thing is i read what the fed is saying and i see a disconnect how down they seem to be and the reality. i mean do we really got to go all the way to 2017 or whatever it is, rick, if we're at 2.-- don't we re-evaluate? >> they don't. >> it's not a real 2.7. >> this is malice in wonderland. once the fed moved into crisis mode, once any part of the government moves into crisis mode, once they're in the new space, they start to feel a bit comfortable and they don't vacate it. and this is something that's difficult to reverse. >> so what are you saying? >> you know -- >> you said the 2.7 is not real. >> it's very funny. you missed conspiracy. >> it didn't matter? >> i gave it to you when it first came out and you missed it. i understand, i talk a little wonky and you don't listen all the time. the numbers are juiced by government spending, up by federal spends. up on a
rick santelli and steve liesman join forces here on the set to rise above the fiscal cliff. i'm worried. i have a feeling i'm rising -- i'm not rising. as we head into break, check out the price of crude. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing. >>> welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. the futures are indicated pretty sharply lower at this point, down about 88 points, s&p futures by ten points. the real turn at 7:20 when we started hearing comments from mario draghi in europe about how germany's economy is being affected, as well. in germany, france, and london, markets all turned south on that. and right now in germany, the dax down by about 41 points. >>> this year, the weather channel will begin naming winter storms. and the nor'easter that is expected to dump snow from maryland to maine is the first to
liesman. steve, a quarter of a million jobs created this month, upgrade to the previous two. that's quite a big number. >> yeah, it's moving in the right direction, simon. and what we can say it's a stronger than expected report. it goes along with other strong data. you heard the factory orders. and what it tells us is the economy was on a modest upswing just before this catastrophic hurricane sandy hit the northeast and that's going to be affecting the data in coming months and weeks. nonfarm payroll up 171,000 and that's the number simon gave you. it gives you quarter of a million jobs. unemployment rate ticking up but essentially that was because people left the workforce or entered -- left jobs or entered the workforce so there was not a bad reason for the uptick. what was not encouraging, earnings being unchanged and hours being unchanged. you had this pretty good diffusion. sometimes leads to to greater full-time employment. we've been waiting for the construction numbers to be positive. we've had positive home construction data but not employment. it shows up in the data. here is
quarter, pre-market trading up $1.52. >>> let's talk jobs and the economy, steve liesman is with us with the latest about what economists are saying about last week's jobs report and more importantly hurricane sandy. which one is more important? >> they're equally important. what we saw was the economy continuing to improve in october going into sandy but right now what's happening is they're bracing for the effects of sandy. let's think about what some folks have said, sandy eliminates any doubt, if there was any that the fed would exteex extend its assets into the first quarter. morgan stanley is saying that it may lower its gdp forecast, which is already low at 1% for the fourth quart and first quarter of 2013 from 1% down. they counted it up. most economists see economic improvement into october. macro advisers raising its third quarter tracking forecast from not 2% anymore, 2.5% not that great but something to write home about maybe, it is maintaining the 1.25% note number for the fourth quarter. ubs taking its first crack at 2014 gdp and saying it may get up to all the way to
our senior economics reporter steve liesman. i look for a definitive answer on this one. >> i wish i could give it to you. the reason it's not definitive is two-fold. there's a rate issue and there's a change issue. let's talk about that. president obama is the fifth president in the postwar era to face the electorate with plus 7% unemployment rate and highest of all here at 7.9%. the other four, ford, carter, reagan and bush, only one of them, ronald reagan, won re-election. why? because perhaps the change. obviously president reagan had strong growth in the four quarters leading up to his election. he had a 1.4 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate in the one year prior. 18-point margin in victory here. look at president obama. he has a one percentage point decline in unemployment rate in 12 months prior and we don't know what will happen. if you just get question marks in, we wait to see what margin plus or minus of his victory. we did a poll and asked people who are unemployed how are you going to vote in the election. let's look at the overall vote which comes from n
claims and international trade data. before we get to that steve liesman has a preview of the effects of hurricane sandy on the jobless claims rate that we may be getting. >> big debate this morning. the consensus 365, which would be no change but i have seen some 400,000 jobless claim numbers out there, some estimates from some economists. the general thinking you might get a slight rise this week. next week you go up to 500,000, i have a long-term chart the last ten years. what do you see? the only storm you can see on the chart physically is katrina, that bump over there on the left. all the other storms, no pun intended, wash out. here is the katrina effect that bump right there, goes up and comes back down. so hopefully this is not an effect like katrina but if it is in general we'll see if the market looks to it. i was interested in jason trennert's comments earlier that he sees a recession coming and we have to parse that because we can go up to 500,000. i don't buy it but i'd like to talk with jason. jason is a smart guy. >> jobless claims bungy like the fiscal cliff bungy, go
? the answer is different groups will be affected very differently. steve liesman has more on the numbers. >> what we do know is if we go over the cliff, no change in what is mandated by those rules. everybody will pay more. we've divided up the country into quintiles, one-fifth, one-fifth, one-fifth. here's what happens with the cliff. for the lowest they go up by 3.7%, second 4.1%. if you're in the middle, where most people are, up 3.8% all the way to the top, 5.8%. what about the top 1%? their numbers go up by 7.2%. here's a way to think about it. this is what thelma and louise would pay extra if they went over the cliff. here's what mr. thurston howell would pay if they went over the cliff. let's take a look at the actual dollar values beyond percentage points. we know we have health care law taking effect and that will only affect the top fifth. here's your dollar values for the income bracket ets is. add on the amt, when they expire, get rid of the bush tax cuts. for the wealthy, a big chunk. it goes down to the second quintile. we get rid of some payroll tax cuts. down the line f y
with qe cannot undo the effects of the fiscal cliff. >> steve liesman thank you for that. >> got breaking news here from former autonomy ceo mike lynch. kayla tausche is back at headquarters. >> of course we know the news coming out of hp this morning. former ceo mike lynch who sold the company to hp called those statements allegations and said the former management team of autonomy was shocked to see the statement today and flatly rejects these allegations which are false. former ceo lynch called hp's due diligence extensive. it also closes by saying it took ten years to build autonomy's industry leading technology and it's sad to see how it's been mismanaged since its acquisition by hp. back to you. >> all right. the arrows have started flying in both directions. very interesting. don't think we're going to sylvia quite yet. >> we'll wait on that. we're going to head to break. shares of research in motion seeing a rise in today's session after jeffrey's upgraies upgrad hold. we're going to talk to the analyst behind the call in just a few. first -- >> hewlett packard earnings are out an
ten years to make the deal work. >> thanks to steve liesman and scott nations. catch scott on fridays. unfortunately today is only monday. so you're jonesing for scott nations you have to wait until friday on "options action" which is at 5:00 p.m. >>> when we come back, we have economist jeffrey cleveland on how to view the fiscal cliff. he says america's debt crisis is more like a garden than a cliff. he'll explain right after this. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. monarch of marketing analysis. with the ability to improve roi through seo all by cob. and from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm going b-i-g. [ male announcer ] good choice business pro. good choice. go national. go like a pro. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use. it's the
't get out. we definitely underestimated this. >> want to get to steve liesman who's got some great news. >> jim, i agree with you from day one, they said it was a $50 billion event, we have done some recording, we're showing it $70 billion to $90 billion. but hurricane sandy is not expected to derail the company's economy. the damage from sandy was worse than first anticipated. there's 75,000 jobs lost in new jersey and new york. and the $1.4 billion economy is -- in the quarters ahead, in the fourth quart, he sees a quarter to a half point hit to national gdp directly related to the effects of sandy. talking about the national economy, the bright spots include housing and consumer spending, the negatives include business investment along with weak manufacturing. the congress and the administration must address the fiscal cliff. any plan to reduce the deficit should quote start small and then grow very substantially over time. so dudley basically agreeing with the take that sandy is a bigger event, and then you want to add on top of that dudley's concerns about the fiscal cliff coming o
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